Saturday’s game that pits the Troy Trojans (10-5, 3-1 Sun Belt) against the Arkansas State Red Wolves (11-5, 2-2 Sun Belt) at Trojan Arena should be a tight matchup based on our computer prediction, which projects a final score of 72-71 in favor of Troy. Tipoff is at 4:33 PM ET on January 11.

Based on our computer prediction, Troy should cover the point spread, which currently sits at 1.5. The two teams are projected to go under the 143.5 total.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 4:33 PM ET
• TV: ESPN+
• Live stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Troy, Alabama
• Venue: Trojan Arena
• Line: Troy -1.5
• Point total: 143.5
• Moneyline (to win): Troy -128, Arkansas State +104

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Troy 72, Arkansas State 71

Spread & Total Prediction for Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Pick ATS: Troy (-1.5)
• Pick OU: Under (143.5)

Troy is 8-5-0 against the spread, while Arkansas State’s ATS record this season is 6-9-0. The Trojans are 6-7-0 and the Red Wolves are 7-8-0 in terms of going over the point total. The teams combine to score 151.9 points per game, 8.4 more points than this matchup’s total. Troy has a 6-4 record against the spread while going 6-4 overall over the past 10 games. Arkansas State has gone 4-6 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its last 10 contests.

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Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans have a +116 scoring differential, topping opponents by 7.8 points per game. They’re putting up 73.7 points per game to rank 229th in college basketball and are allowing 65.9 per outing to rank 51st in college basketball.
• The 34.2 rebounds per game Troy averages rank 101st in college basketball, and are 6.1 more than the 28.1 its opponents grab per contest.
• Troy connects on 6.7 three-pointers per game (281st in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 6.6. It shoots 28.6% from deep while its opponents hit 32.8% from long range.
• The Trojans’ 93.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 245th in college basketball, and the 83.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 30th in college basketball.
• Troy and its opponents have been mostly even in the turnover battle. The Trojans commit 14.7 per game (349th in college basketball) and force 13.9 (49th in college basketball play).

Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves put up 78.2 points per game (109th in college basketball) while giving up 70.8 per outing (169th in college basketball). They have a +119 scoring differential and outscore opponents by 7.4 points per game.
• Arkansas State is 17th in college basketball at 37.4 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 36.4 its opponents average.
• Arkansas State hits 9.4 three-pointers per game (55th in college basketball) while shooting 31.5% from deep (292nd in college basketball). It is making 2.6 more threes than its opponents, who drain 6.8 per game at 31.1%.
• Arkansas State has typically won the turnover battle this season, committing 10.6 per game (87th in college basketball) while forcing 12.6 (131st in college basketball).

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